Post by frangie on Jun 22, 2020 21:25:06 GMT -8
CONTENDER OR PRETENDER?
by Frangie
We are halfway into the season, and some teams have started to separate from the rest of the pack.
Below, I list the over .500 teams in order by win %, and give some information as to how teams are faring in the four key areas: offensive efficiency (points per shot), defensive efficiency (points allowed per shot), rebound differential (team rebounds minus opponent rebounds), and turnover margin (opponent turnovers minus team turnovers). These metrics can’t be found by simply sorting on the team stats page, so I think this provides some nice insight for folks. For each team, I will then say if I consider them a CONTENDER or a PRETENDER! Let’s get to it!
THE LIST
1. Nets (34-7)
Lead by MVP candidate Kyrie Irving, New Jersey ranks 1st in the NBA in point differential per game (+11.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #2 offense (1.08 PPS) and #10 defense (1.01 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 6th-best rebounding differential per game (+4.1) and the 5th-best turnover differential per game (+1.5). They are clearly the team to beat so far!
Verdict: Contender
2. Grizzlies (30-9)
Memphis ranks 3rd in the NBA in point differential per game (+9.6) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #1 offense (1.10 PPS) and #21 defense (1.03 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 5th-best rebounding differential per game (+4.5) and the 8th-best turnover differential per game (+1.1). Kawhi and Harden are the deadliest due in the game… Just look at that offense!
Verdict: Contender
3. Pelicans (26-12)
New Orleans ranks 7th in the NBA in point differential per game (+4.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #9 offense (1.03 PPS) and #13 defense (1.02 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 19th-best rebounding differential per game (-1.8) and the 2nd-best turnover differential per game (+2.6). While a good team, the lack of rebounding and being just good not great on offense and defense limits their ceiling.
Verdict: Pretender
4. Suns (27-13)
Phoenix ranks 4th in the NBA in point differential per game (+5.5) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #10 offense (1.03 PPS) and #7 defense (1.00 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 3rd-best rebounding differential per game (+5.3) and the 11th-best turnover differential per game (+0.5). Adding Kevin Durant makes them a big threat for the title.
Verdict: Contender
5. Thunder (25-15)
OKC ranks 2nd in the NBA in point differential per game (+10.2) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #3 offense (1.08 PPS) and #16 defense (1.02 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 1st-best rebounding differential per game (+6.9) and the 7th-best turnover differential per game (+1.1).
Verdict: Contender
6. Bulls (27-17)
Chicago ranks 11th in the NBA in point differential per game (+2.3) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #7 offense (1.04 PPS) and #19 defense (1.03 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 16th-best rebounding differential per game (-0.3) and the 6th-best turnover differential per game (+1.4). The Bulls are a solid team but nothing spectacular at this point.
Verdict: Pretender
7. Rockets (25-17)
Houston ranks 5th in the NBA in point differential per game (+5.3) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #6 offense (1.04 PPS) and #9 defense (1.01 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 2nd-best rebounding differential per game (+6.0) and the 21st-best turnover differential per game (-0.7). A top 10 offense and defense plus the 2nd best rebounding makes for a pretty potent playoff team.
Verdict: Contender
8. Celtics (21-15)
Boston ranks 10th in the NBA in point differential per game (+2.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #8 offense (1.04 PPS) and #14 defense (1.02 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 14th-best rebounding differential per game (+0.4) and the 15th-best turnover differential per game (-0.1). Their a perfectly above average team, but nothing more so far.
Verdict: Pretender
9. Heat (25-18)
Miami ranks 8th in the NBA in point differential per game (+3.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #13 offense (1.03 PPS) and #2 defense (0.99 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 9th-best rebounding differential per game (+2.7) and the 23rd-best turnover differential per game (-0.9). The defense has been amazing, but they need a little more scoring punch, and to hang onto the ball a bit more.
Verdict: Pretender
10. Cavaliers (27-20)
Cleveland ranks 9th in the NBA in point differential per game (+3.3) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #22 offense (1.00 PPS) and #1 defense (0.98 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 8th-best rebounding differential per game (+3.4) and the 21st-best turnover differential per game (-0.7). They are heavily unbalanced, but if they can swing a trade for an efficient scorer that could make big difference!
Verdict: Pretender
11. Timberwolves (26-21)
Minnesota ranks 6th in the NBA in point differential per game (+4.7) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #5 offense (1.04 PPS) and #11 defense (1.01 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 20th-best rebounding differential per game (-1.9) and the 3rd-best turnover differential per game (+2.4). My toughest call – the diagnostics are pretty good considering the record!
Verdict: Contender
12. Kings (19-16)
Sacramento ranks 13th in the NBA in point differential per game (+0.2) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #18 offense (1.01 PPS) and #8 defense (1.01 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 11th-best rebounding differential per game (+1.4) and the 17th-best turnover differential per game (-0.3). Average team.
Verdict: Pretender
16. Magic (25-23)
Orlando ranks 16th in the NBA in point differential per game (-1.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #19 offense (1.01 PPS) and #4 defense (1.00 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 22nd-best rebounding differential per game (-2.6) and the 10th-best turnover differential per game (+0.6). You can’t be a contender if you get outscored on average!
Verdict: Pretender
Word count: 1100+
by Frangie
We are halfway into the season, and some teams have started to separate from the rest of the pack.
Below, I list the over .500 teams in order by win %, and give some information as to how teams are faring in the four key areas: offensive efficiency (points per shot), defensive efficiency (points allowed per shot), rebound differential (team rebounds minus opponent rebounds), and turnover margin (opponent turnovers minus team turnovers). These metrics can’t be found by simply sorting on the team stats page, so I think this provides some nice insight for folks. For each team, I will then say if I consider them a CONTENDER or a PRETENDER! Let’s get to it!
THE LIST
1. Nets (34-7)
Lead by MVP candidate Kyrie Irving, New Jersey ranks 1st in the NBA in point differential per game (+11.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #2 offense (1.08 PPS) and #10 defense (1.01 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 6th-best rebounding differential per game (+4.1) and the 5th-best turnover differential per game (+1.5). They are clearly the team to beat so far!
Verdict: Contender
2. Grizzlies (30-9)
Memphis ranks 3rd in the NBA in point differential per game (+9.6) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #1 offense (1.10 PPS) and #21 defense (1.03 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 5th-best rebounding differential per game (+4.5) and the 8th-best turnover differential per game (+1.1). Kawhi and Harden are the deadliest due in the game… Just look at that offense!
Verdict: Contender
3. Pelicans (26-12)
New Orleans ranks 7th in the NBA in point differential per game (+4.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #9 offense (1.03 PPS) and #13 defense (1.02 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 19th-best rebounding differential per game (-1.8) and the 2nd-best turnover differential per game (+2.6). While a good team, the lack of rebounding and being just good not great on offense and defense limits their ceiling.
Verdict: Pretender
4. Suns (27-13)
Phoenix ranks 4th in the NBA in point differential per game (+5.5) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #10 offense (1.03 PPS) and #7 defense (1.00 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 3rd-best rebounding differential per game (+5.3) and the 11th-best turnover differential per game (+0.5). Adding Kevin Durant makes them a big threat for the title.
Verdict: Contender
5. Thunder (25-15)
OKC ranks 2nd in the NBA in point differential per game (+10.2) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #3 offense (1.08 PPS) and #16 defense (1.02 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 1st-best rebounding differential per game (+6.9) and the 7th-best turnover differential per game (+1.1).
Verdict: Contender
6. Bulls (27-17)
Chicago ranks 11th in the NBA in point differential per game (+2.3) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #7 offense (1.04 PPS) and #19 defense (1.03 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 16th-best rebounding differential per game (-0.3) and the 6th-best turnover differential per game (+1.4). The Bulls are a solid team but nothing spectacular at this point.
Verdict: Pretender
7. Rockets (25-17)
Houston ranks 5th in the NBA in point differential per game (+5.3) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #6 offense (1.04 PPS) and #9 defense (1.01 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 2nd-best rebounding differential per game (+6.0) and the 21st-best turnover differential per game (-0.7). A top 10 offense and defense plus the 2nd best rebounding makes for a pretty potent playoff team.
Verdict: Contender
8. Celtics (21-15)
Boston ranks 10th in the NBA in point differential per game (+2.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #8 offense (1.04 PPS) and #14 defense (1.02 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 14th-best rebounding differential per game (+0.4) and the 15th-best turnover differential per game (-0.1). Their a perfectly above average team, but nothing more so far.
Verdict: Pretender
9. Heat (25-18)
Miami ranks 8th in the NBA in point differential per game (+3.4) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #13 offense (1.03 PPS) and #2 defense (0.99 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 9th-best rebounding differential per game (+2.7) and the 23rd-best turnover differential per game (-0.9). The defense has been amazing, but they need a little more scoring punch, and to hang onto the ball a bit more.
Verdict: Pretender
10. Cavaliers (27-20)
Cleveland ranks 9th in the NBA in point differential per game (+3.3) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #22 offense (1.00 PPS) and #1 defense (0.98 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 8th-best rebounding differential per game (+3.4) and the 21st-best turnover differential per game (-0.7). They are heavily unbalanced, but if they can swing a trade for an efficient scorer that could make big difference!
Verdict: Pretender
11. Timberwolves (26-21)
Minnesota ranks 6th in the NBA in point differential per game (+4.7) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #5 offense (1.04 PPS) and #11 defense (1.01 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 20th-best rebounding differential per game (-1.9) and the 3rd-best turnover differential per game (+2.4). My toughest call – the diagnostics are pretty good considering the record!
Verdict: Contender
12. Kings (19-16)
Sacramento ranks 13th in the NBA in point differential per game (+0.2) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #18 offense (1.01 PPS) and #8 defense (1.01 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 11th-best rebounding differential per game (+1.4) and the 17th-best turnover differential per game (-0.3). Average team.
Verdict: Pretender
16. Magic (25-23)
Orlando ranks 16th in the NBA in point differential per game (-1.1) so far this season. According to my metrics, they have the #19 offense (1.01 PPS) and #4 defense (1.00 PPS) in terms of efficiency. Relative to winning the position battle, they have the 22nd-best rebounding differential per game (-2.6) and the 10th-best turnover differential per game (+0.6). You can’t be a contender if you get outscored on average!
Verdict: Pretender
Word count: 1100+